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Kathleen Lowrey's avatar

One very proximate possible cause not listed here: not having reproductive sex.

Probably this is difficult to track globally. But we know Western young people are having less sex and less PIV sex than were previous generations. Might that just be true everywhere? The causes could be the internet, diminished physical fitness, endocrine disruptors, social norms, etc. etc. but there are about a zillion think pieces about "overarching social thing X" and far fewer about "people of reproductive age doing far less of the actual activity that directly makes babies"

Years ago the historian Thomas Laqueuer wrote an interesting speculative paper about the dramatic rise in population in 18th century Europe perhaps being due to people having more reproductive sex. The rise predated any kind of improvement in sanitation so it wasn't down to lowered mortality rates. He suggested an interesting base / superstructure rationale: in an era valuing "productivity" with the rise of capitalism, "productive" sex became more central in European sexual lives.

Whatever our current mode of production is, it's not really exactly productive in the old way: a lot of the economy is speculative, unreal, meta, mediated, etc. Certainly the sex lives of many affluent-society young people seem to be going that way as well.

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Norman G. Angleson's avatar

>migrants needed to shore up birthrates

Turns out no, they only make the problem worse. All that happens is they change the demographics of who gets to be born.

The infant simulators thing is also imo better causal within-individual evidence that the role model / fertility culture thing should have some effect.

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