"The French president election system is weird. It's a 2 stage run. First stage finds the 2 most popular candidates. Second stage asks people to choose between just those two."
How is that "weird"? Know your election history. Countries without a second round get bad results, but that has been rectified with time. They know the warning example: In Chile in the past two conservative candidates got the majority of votes, but the Cuban puppet got more votes than either of the two, and since they had no second election he could take control. (And could illegally let communist gangs out of prison after they attacked protesters who suffered from the socialist destruction of the economy, while Cuba was moving in advisers, arms and explosives for a takeover. But I digress.) The two candidates with the most votes are the only ones with a chance of winning. Therefore they go to the second round.
I see allot of pundits putting up Le-Pen as the savior of France. Le-Pen is nothing more than a WW2 fascist party re-imaged. They cannot be trusted just like the majority of the world leaders today who are under the WEF thumb.
The runoff is still 17 days out, you can't just take a poll trend line and project it that far into the future. For example 17 days ago, Le Pen had barely even begun her current surge.
The code was written so that it would scrape data off some website when it was run. This also meant that when that website disappeared, the code broke. Instead of fixing it, I depublished it. The code is still on Github, so I guess I should fix it up by getting the final values from Internet archive for that website.
If voting did any good, they wouldn't let us do it.
You assume it will be an honest election. That is unwarranted.
"The French president election system is weird. It's a 2 stage run. First stage finds the 2 most popular candidates. Second stage asks people to choose between just those two."
How is that "weird"? Know your election history. Countries without a second round get bad results, but that has been rectified with time. They know the warning example: In Chile in the past two conservative candidates got the majority of votes, but the Cuban puppet got more votes than either of the two, and since they had no second election he could take control. (And could illegally let communist gangs out of prison after they attacked protesters who suffered from the socialist destruction of the economy, while Cuba was moving in advisers, arms and explosives for a takeover. But I digress.) The two candidates with the most votes are the only ones with a chance of winning. Therefore they go to the second round.
I see allot of pundits putting up Le-Pen as the savior of France. Le-Pen is nothing more than a WW2 fascist party re-imaged. They cannot be trusted just like the majority of the world leaders today who are under the WEF thumb.
The runoff is still 17 days out, you can't just take a poll trend line and project it that far into the future. For example 17 days ago, Le Pen had barely even begun her current surge.
I fail to understand how she is 2nd place in any poll but a winner in your model. And she didn't over-perform the polls in previous elections.
Models extrapolate current trends forward to the election date. You can see this in the plots.
The code was written so that it would scrape data off some website when it was run. This also meant that when that website disappeared, the code broke. Instead of fixing it, I depublished it. The code is still on Github, so I guess I should fix it up by getting the final values from Internet archive for that website.
But my tweets with public predictions are still there as proof. https://twitter.com/KirkegaardEmil/status/745685098180259840 and https://twitter.com/KirkegaardEmil/status/740179614815952897