Gelman proposed the time reversal heuristic when evaluating discussions about failed replications. One helpful (I think) way to think about this episode is to turn things around. Suppose the Ranehill et al. experiment, with its null finding, had come first. A large study finding no effect. And then Cuddy et al. had run a replication under slightly different conditions with a much smaller sample size and found statistically significance under non-preregistered conditions. Would we be inclined to believe it? I don’t think so. At the very least, we’d have to conclude that any power-pose effect is fragile.
The reverse time reversal heuristic?
The reverse time reversal heuristic?
The reverse time reversal heuristic?
Gelman proposed the time reversal heuristic when evaluating discussions about failed replications. One helpful (I think) way to think about this episode is to turn things around. Suppose the Ranehill et al. experiment, with its null finding, had come first. A large study finding no effect. And then Cuddy et al. had run a replication under slightly different conditions with a much smaller sample size and found statistically significance under non-preregistered conditions. Would we be inclined to believe it? I don’t think so. At the very least, we’d have to conclude that any power-pose effect is fragile.