19 Comments
User's avatar
Micah Johnson's avatar

Perhaps I overlooked it…but are we referring to legal gun ‘ownership’? It may or may not be relevant

Emil O. W. Kirkegaard's avatar

Question is: Are any firearms now kept in or around your home?. So that includes illegal ones, if people answer that way. Who knows, survey data has issues with people who lie.

Micah Johnson's avatar

So it’s a yes/no not a quantity? I’ve seen people say ridiculous things like “one household owning dozens” and people outside that household shooting each other creates the stat and is proof…which a reasonable person / educated reader would conclude was a major negative correlation

Steve Sailer's avatar

Congratulations, Micah Johnson, on your evident recovery from being blown up by the Dallas Police Department's robot on July 7, 2016.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micah_Xavier_Johnson

Guest007's avatar

Trying to nitpick the wording is not going to answer for the correlation demonstrated in the graph.

Micah Johnson's avatar

What are you even talking about? There’s a thread

Steve Sailer's avatar

Is there any data on number of long guns vs. hand guns in a locality?

Long guns are pretty useless for planning to commit any crimes you are hoping to get away with (e.g., other than school shootings and murder-suicides) because they attract witness attention.

Steve Sailer's avatar

Sounds plausible.

You can look up in CDC WONDER mortality data non-Hispanic white deaths by firearm homicide.

Death rates are higher in the more rootin'-tootin' places like West Virginia and Mississippi. Unlike in Mississippi, very few white people in West Virginia get shot by nonwhites, so that fits with my stereotype of West Virginians being the orneriest whites in the U.S.

Whether gun ownership drives white on white homicides or whether Scots-Irish and Lowland South Culture drives gun ownership is a complex question.

palooka's avatar

great english. are you from the master race then?

DS's avatar

Can you do this analysis looking at developed European nations only without including the USA. Is there an association there too?

The ICVS provides estimates of the percentage of households owning firearms for various European nations (although the stats are from 2005). You can augment with FS/S for more recent years or missing EU countries:

https://unicri.org/sites/default/files/2021-06/ICVS2004_05report.pdf

Wiki article which lists the figures: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Percent_of_households_with_guns_by_country

DS's avatar

(ICVS also reports handgun percentage separately)

Steve Sailer's avatar

I like to point out that New York City greatly reduced its homicide rate in recent decades by focusing on point-of-use gun control as well as its traditional point-of-sale gun control. The NYPD under Bloomberg apparently changed the NYC culture from one in which lowlifes went out carrying illegal handguns because they were more afraid of other lowlifes with illegal handguns than they were of the NYPD to one in which they fear the NYPD more, so they leave their illegal guns at home so they won't go to prison if they are stopped and searched.

Nonotum's avatar

Persisting endogeneity net of demographics still seems plausible. Kleck, Kovandzic & Schaffer (2006) also note that the percentage of suicides committed with guns is probably the best available indicator but it's still not ideal: "not only do changes in PSG fail to strongly correlate with direct survey measures of changes in gun prevalence ove time; PSG actually generally has weak negative correlations with these criterion measures"

They use subscriptions to outdoor sports magazines and % democrat election share as instruments and the association disappears

> When the problem is ignored, gun levels are associated with

higher rates of gun homicide; when the problem is addressed, this association disappears or reverses

Steve Sailer's avatar

NRA membership would be another proxy for legal gun ownership.

Simon L's avatar

I'd be interested to see this with %Republican, because %Republican is a reasonable proxy for people who own guns because they're into "gun culture" activities like hunting and sport shooting, as distinguished from the people who own guns because they anticipate being in a violent situation.

Emil O. W. Kirkegaard's avatar

Yes, but I used Republican % in the imputation model, so including it in an analysis afterward is somewhat dubious.

stephen anderson's avatar

Are you using the firearms suicide rate or overall suicide rate ?

Also when you do other countries do you include doctor assisted suicide ? In Canada for example

Their suicide rate is much higher when it’s included.

Emil O. W. Kirkegaard's avatar

Firearm suicide % of all suicides. Higher value = more guns. That's the standard proxy.

I didn't use any other countries here, just internal US data.