Jun 29, 2023·edited Jun 29, 2023Liked by Emil O. W. Kirkegaard
You should refer more to data from this substack Data Hazard. So about 5000 blacks were lynched. The crime stats show that of the ~200K interracial murders since 1968, about 75% are black on white. That's a cumulative total of about ~150K white getting killed by blacks since 1968.
Nobody is for mob rule lynchings. But plenty of people seems to be turning a blind eye on the black on white murder that happens a lot more frequently. This is not counting assaults or rapes.
The US is continuing to pay the price for importing African slave labor. Long term, I think the US economy will become like Brazil's. There are a lot of racial hiring quotas that basically make the entire country extremely inefficient and non-competitive.
It's a great blog. I wanted to stick with the numbers from 1900, and I wasn't able to find any reliable deaths from homicide from then for some reason. Turns out the FBI and police didn't report things properly back then, and one has to do various estimates.
Assuming that the USA will follow Brazil's path ignores several differences between the two countries. The main one is that Portuguese are not at all proactive. They got a head-start in exploration because of their seaside location and proximity to Africa, but other than that they did little.
I lived for a while in a Brazilian mountain town that was settled by Lombard Italians in the 1850's. The amazing thing is that, although the town site is 30 miles from the Atlantic Ocean and from the state capital Vitoria, which was founded in 1551, Tupi still occupied the area until the Lombards ran them out. Good God! Three hundred years to proceed 30 miles! Scots-Irish Long Hunters were penetrating two hundred miles into Cherokee territory in the 1760's to harvest deer pelts clandestinely. One Long Hunter was chased on foot by a dozen Cherokee. He reloaded on the run and then stopped to fire. The Cherokee gave up the chase after several had been laid low.
Vianna Moog's "Bandeirantes e Pioneiros" detailed the many differences between Portuguese and Northern European settlers of indigenous land. Because Scots-Irish and other Germanics in North American are proactive, I would expect the USA to develop a Counter-Elite that sets things right. Peter Turchin's "End Times" outlines the possibility of such a course.
Thanks for the book recommendation from Turchin. I'll check it out.
And my point about Brazil is not about the work ethics of Portuguese vs Anglo-Saxon. It's about the overall demographics of the country. If current trends continue, the US will eventually become a hispanic plurality country. The black population won't grow beyond the current 13% but there will be ever greater transfer payments to them in the form of direct welfare payments and indirect non-productive government jobs (what does a diversity dean do at a university all day anyways?)
In the US, white males continue to marry hispanics females and producing mixed children. This is very similar to Brazil with a very large mixed race population. These marriages produce children whose IQs are below the white average of 100.
There will continue to be pockets of elite whites who do not intermarry (just like Brazil's southern states). But they will be a smaller and smaller share of the population. East Asians and South Asians will be part of this elite group in the US. But their numbers won't be as big as the hispanic population.
"The most dramatic increases in intermarriage have occurred among black newlyweds. Since 1980, the share who married someone of a different race or ethnicity has more than tripled from 5% to 18%. White newlyweds, too, have experienced a rapid increase in intermarriage, with rates rising from 4% to 11%. However, despite this increase, they remain the least likely of all major racial or ethnic groups to marry someone of a different race or ethnicity."
Black females are trying to practice hypergamy, but most cannot succeed in doing so. Most of Asian inter-racial marriage is to Whites and not dysgenic for Whites, note the Korean storekeepers. Most whites marrying inter-racially but not to Asians are not the high competency part of the White population; the White gene pool is better off without most of them. Perhaps a smaller but self-selected White gene pool is advantageous because it carries cultural values along with the genetics. You are too pessimistic.
Thanks for the link to the article. This confirms what I read in other places:
"The most common racial or ethnic pairing among newlywed intermarried couples is one Hispanic and one white spouse (42%). Next most common are one white and one Asian spouse (15%) and one white and one multiracial spouse (12%)."
The census projections for 2060 says whites will be at 44% while hispanics at 27%. I don't think these projects take into account the huge increases in illegal immigrations happening right now. The huge number of Central Americans and increasingly Africans coming across from the Mexican border will change these projections.
Right, among other reasons, the main reason why the US will not become Brazil is that the US has a tremendous human capital advantage. As you say, even black Americans outscore Brazilians on PISA. US Hispanics, which are the largest growing underperfoming minority, vastly outscore Brazil and the rest of Latin America.
Then you have Whites, who are in the majority, and who score as Whites in Western Europe, and Asians, who are increasing due to immigration, and who score higher than Whites. The US is also just a magnet for talent around the world, and continues to attract Europe's elite human capital, even if overall European immigrants are small in numbers. The US was probably founded by some of the European groups with the highest human capital at the time, so this has been a trend.
We are continuing to pay the price for allowing communists to seize power of our Nation. Africans could be dealt with rather easily with the right Leadership/Regime. Instead, the current regime has made Africans the sacred idol of America, not to he criticized, but celebrated as they murder Whites.
Based on the username you only need a very slight change to your heuristics: Ukrainians displaying their own country's flag to be patriotic should not be treated like idiot Westerners displaying a foreign flag to signal their progressive virtue.
Awfully silly to measure evil by nothing but deaths caused. Is it silly to be “obsessed” by violent rape, when heart disease kills countless more? Is it silly to do activism against the death penalty when car accidents are a much greater killer?
The book, "A Rogue's Paradise" by James Denham, exhaustively documents the several difficulties which hobbled the official justice system of antebellum Florida. The difficulties mostly sprang from the thinly settled nature of Florida at that time. Most Southern states went through such a period of rudimentary official justice, and vigilante justice or personal retribution were ways to deter crime in this social climate.
Would be better to compare Tuskegee’s estimate of lynchings from 1880-1968, adjusted for recording bias, with b on w interracial crime numbers for some period, if those stats can he disaggregated so we can look at homicides alone
You should refer more to data from this substack Data Hazard. So about 5000 blacks were lynched. The crime stats show that of the ~200K interracial murders since 1968, about 75% are black on white. That's a cumulative total of about ~150K white getting killed by blacks since 1968.
https://datahazard.substack.com/p/interracial-murder
Nobody is for mob rule lynchings. But plenty of people seems to be turning a blind eye on the black on white murder that happens a lot more frequently. This is not counting assaults or rapes.
The US is continuing to pay the price for importing African slave labor. Long term, I think the US economy will become like Brazil's. There are a lot of racial hiring quotas that basically make the entire country extremely inefficient and non-competitive.
It's a great blog. I wanted to stick with the numbers from 1900, and I wasn't able to find any reliable deaths from homicide from then for some reason. Turns out the FBI and police didn't report things properly back then, and one has to do various estimates.
https://twitter.com/KirkegaardEmil/status/1674424930665136131
Assuming that the USA will follow Brazil's path ignores several differences between the two countries. The main one is that Portuguese are not at all proactive. They got a head-start in exploration because of their seaside location and proximity to Africa, but other than that they did little.
I lived for a while in a Brazilian mountain town that was settled by Lombard Italians in the 1850's. The amazing thing is that, although the town site is 30 miles from the Atlantic Ocean and from the state capital Vitoria, which was founded in 1551, Tupi still occupied the area until the Lombards ran them out. Good God! Three hundred years to proceed 30 miles! Scots-Irish Long Hunters were penetrating two hundred miles into Cherokee territory in the 1760's to harvest deer pelts clandestinely. One Long Hunter was chased on foot by a dozen Cherokee. He reloaded on the run and then stopped to fire. The Cherokee gave up the chase after several had been laid low.
Vianna Moog's "Bandeirantes e Pioneiros" detailed the many differences between Portuguese and Northern European settlers of indigenous land. Because Scots-Irish and other Germanics in North American are proactive, I would expect the USA to develop a Counter-Elite that sets things right. Peter Turchin's "End Times" outlines the possibility of such a course.
Thanks for the book recommendation from Turchin. I'll check it out.
And my point about Brazil is not about the work ethics of Portuguese vs Anglo-Saxon. It's about the overall demographics of the country. If current trends continue, the US will eventually become a hispanic plurality country. The black population won't grow beyond the current 13% but there will be ever greater transfer payments to them in the form of direct welfare payments and indirect non-productive government jobs (what does a diversity dean do at a university all day anyways?)
In the US, white males continue to marry hispanics females and producing mixed children. This is very similar to Brazil with a very large mixed race population. These marriages produce children whose IQs are below the white average of 100.
There will continue to be pockets of elite whites who do not intermarry (just like Brazil's southern states). But they will be a smaller and smaller share of the population. East Asians and South Asians will be part of this elite group in the US. But their numbers won't be as big as the hispanic population.
Intermarriage in the U.S. 50 Years After Loving v. Virginia
https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2017/05/18/intermarriage-in-the-u-s-50-years-after-loving-v-virginia/
"The most dramatic increases in intermarriage have occurred among black newlyweds. Since 1980, the share who married someone of a different race or ethnicity has more than tripled from 5% to 18%. White newlyweds, too, have experienced a rapid increase in intermarriage, with rates rising from 4% to 11%. However, despite this increase, they remain the least likely of all major racial or ethnic groups to marry someone of a different race or ethnicity."
Black females are trying to practice hypergamy, but most cannot succeed in doing so. Most of Asian inter-racial marriage is to Whites and not dysgenic for Whites, note the Korean storekeepers. Most whites marrying inter-racially but not to Asians are not the high competency part of the White population; the White gene pool is better off without most of them. Perhaps a smaller but self-selected White gene pool is advantageous because it carries cultural values along with the genetics. You are too pessimistic.
Thanks for the link to the article. This confirms what I read in other places:
"The most common racial or ethnic pairing among newlywed intermarried couples is one Hispanic and one white spouse (42%). Next most common are one white and one Asian spouse (15%) and one white and one multiracial spouse (12%)."
The census projections for 2060 says whites will be at 44% while hispanics at 27%. I don't think these projects take into account the huge increases in illegal immigrations happening right now. The huge number of Central Americans and increasingly Africans coming across from the Mexican border will change these projections.
https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/demo/p25-1144.pdf
Are Hispanics in the US really demographically similar to Brazilians?
Even US Blacks are more good than avarage brazilian than in PISA.
https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-new-2018-pisa-school-test-scores-usa-usa/
Right, among other reasons, the main reason why the US will not become Brazil is that the US has a tremendous human capital advantage. As you say, even black Americans outscore Brazilians on PISA. US Hispanics, which are the largest growing underperfoming minority, vastly outscore Brazil and the rest of Latin America.
Then you have Whites, who are in the majority, and who score as Whites in Western Europe, and Asians, who are increasing due to immigration, and who score higher than Whites. The US is also just a magnet for talent around the world, and continues to attract Europe's elite human capital, even if overall European immigrants are small in numbers. The US was probably founded by some of the European groups with the highest human capital at the time, so this has been a trend.
We are continuing to pay the price for allowing communists to seize power of our Nation. Africans could be dealt with rather easily with the right Leadership/Regime. Instead, the current regime has made Africans the sacred idol of America, not to he criticized, but celebrated as they murder Whites.
Not appropriate to compare lynchings with deaths by natural causes. What are the comparable figures for murder?
Hard to find.
Lynching is eugenics.
A based take by a The Ukraine flag??? My heuristics have just taken non-trivial damage!
Based on the username you only need a very slight change to your heuristics: Ukrainians displaying their own country's flag to be patriotic should not be treated like idiot Westerners displaying a foreign flag to signal their progressive virtue.
Jurij is a Russian Jewish immigrant to Denmark.
Vast majority of russian jews are actually from ukraine/belarus/poland/baltic countries. Therefore some jews may consider Ukraine as their fatherland.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pale_of_Settlement
They may consider the Pale many things, but they certainly don’t think it’s their “homeland”.
See this debate with a “Ukrainian” Council of Foreign Relations to see where his engagement with the issue lies.
I’ll give you a hint, he loves his “dear” Tablet magazine, hates Russia, loves Israel, and barely mentions Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/live/D12SY4K6OB8?feature=share
Interesting.
Awfully silly to measure evil by nothing but deaths caused. Is it silly to be “obsessed” by violent rape, when heart disease kills countless more? Is it silly to do activism against the death penalty when car accidents are a much greater killer?
The book, "A Rogue's Paradise" by James Denham, exhaustively documents the several difficulties which hobbled the official justice system of antebellum Florida. The difficulties mostly sprang from the thinly settled nature of Florida at that time. Most Southern states went through such a period of rudimentary official justice, and vigilante justice or personal retribution were ways to deter crime in this social climate.
Would be better to compare Tuskegee’s estimate of lynchings from 1880-1968, adjusted for recording bias, with b on w interracial crime numbers for some period, if those stats can he disaggregated so we can look at homicides alone
If you plot the declining trend of "death by lynching" and the increasing trend of "black on white rape" you would see a corelation.