I'm prepared to think the effects are largely genetic. But can you dismiss the effects of black culture?
Upper-middle-class black kids are more drawn to black culture than white kids in the same class and therefore more inclined to pick up corresponding values. This need not be entirely divorced from genetics and in fact could compound its effects. Imagine a 98 IQ kid with 120 IQ parents who does poorly at school, can't relate to parents' culture, looks to rebel by pursuing a more downscale culture. A white kid in this situation adopts white downscale culture, black kid adopts black downscale culture, one culture is much more criminal than the other.
I've seen this play out in real-time: years ago was acquainted with a situation in which a black kid of solid upper-middle class background was shot dead while engaging in pure ghetto behavior and hanging with a ghetto crew.
When it comes to culture: America is #1 in the world for single-parent homes. And this is driven largely, if not entirely, by a 12% minority! How does fatherlessness compare by class and race? I'm inclined to think far more common among the black upper class than white, but less of a difference in the underclasses. Not sure though.
What gives you the right to talk about "culture?" Can you measure "culture"? Have you done any work to operationalize "culture"? If not, do not talk about that which you know nothing of.
In particular, the concept of "adopting" "culture" is uncritical. You do not get to just speak of "adopting culture" as if this is a thing. You know nothing of it.
Likewise, fatherlessness. Obviously genetic. Everyone has the same exousiological environment.
Reversion towards the mean seems like it could explain the pattern in the chart. However, I think the point of the chart is to illustrate that the means are different in the first place. At the top of your analysis, you stated the assumption that Blacks are one standard deviation below Whites on a broad human capital measurement.
I think Steve Sailer is trying to show evidence of this gap to Good Liberals who would prefer that assumption to not be true. So while I enjoyed your analysis and it made me think twice about the data, I think a better analysis would be to assume that the gap is not true, and then show how statistically unlikely it would be for this amount of data to be collected.
Reversion towards the mean seems like it could explain the pattern in the chart. However, I think the point of the chart is to illustrate that the two population means are different in the first place. At the top of your analysis, you stated the assumption that Blacks are one standard deviation below Whites on a broad human capital measurement.
I think Steve Sailer is trying to show evidence of this gap to Good Liberals who would prefer that assumption to not be true. So while I enjoyed your analysis and it made me think twice about the data, I think a better analysis would be to assume that the gap is not true, and then show how statistically unlikely it would be for this amount of data to be collected.
The time series for crime (especially in America) is quite startling. Youth crime in America has almost vanished over the last 30 years. That really should be the focus of attention. How exactly could there no longer be any crime? The lead crime hypothesis is a compelling answer.
Deleading has caused profound changes in American society. These changes continue to go unnoticed by many.
"Continuing trend toward zero youth incarceration
Jan 18, 2023
Recent reports on USA prisoners and jail inmates in 2021 show youth incarceration is still heading toward zero. The prison incarceration rate for men ages 18-19 fell 88% from 2001-2021. The trendline for that decline hits zero in 2025."
I have searched this site and it appears that the lead crime hypothesis has not been accepted here. There is some quite compelling evidence.
This url (scroll to the bottom of the page for the two studies done that linked childhood BLL and 4th grade achievement) shows what happens to reading/math scores when BLLs increase from 1--10 mcg/dl. As can be seen there is a large difference.
Article from "Environmental Research" entitled "Prenatal and postnatal lead exposures and intellectual development among 12-year old Japanese children" (2020) found a ~6 point IQ difference on WISC over the BLL range of 0.37 - 1.71 mcg/dl. All of the quartiles had very large statistical differences.
There is much much more evidence that is highly persuasive.
I'm prepared to think the effects are largely genetic. But can you dismiss the effects of black culture?
Upper-middle-class black kids are more drawn to black culture than white kids in the same class and therefore more inclined to pick up corresponding values. This need not be entirely divorced from genetics and in fact could compound its effects. Imagine a 98 IQ kid with 120 IQ parents who does poorly at school, can't relate to parents' culture, looks to rebel by pursuing a more downscale culture. A white kid in this situation adopts white downscale culture, black kid adopts black downscale culture, one culture is much more criminal than the other.
I've seen this play out in real-time: years ago was acquainted with a situation in which a black kid of solid upper-middle class background was shot dead while engaging in pure ghetto behavior and hanging with a ghetto crew.
When it comes to culture: America is #1 in the world for single-parent homes. And this is driven largely, if not entirely, by a 12% minority! How does fatherlessness compare by class and race? I'm inclined to think far more common among the black upper class than white, but less of a difference in the underclasses. Not sure though.
What gives you the right to talk about "culture?" Can you measure "culture"? Have you done any work to operationalize "culture"? If not, do not talk about that which you know nothing of.
In particular, the concept of "adopting" "culture" is uncritical. You do not get to just speak of "adopting culture" as if this is a thing. You know nothing of it.
Likewise, fatherlessness. Obviously genetic. Everyone has the same exousiological environment.
Most blacks in the extreme rich are rich because they play sport or rap, not because of intelligence or conscientiousness.
Both linked to intelligence
Reversion towards the mean seems like it could explain the pattern in the chart. However, I think the point of the chart is to illustrate that the means are different in the first place. At the top of your analysis, you stated the assumption that Blacks are one standard deviation below Whites on a broad human capital measurement.
I think Steve Sailer is trying to show evidence of this gap to Good Liberals who would prefer that assumption to not be true. So while I enjoyed your analysis and it made me think twice about the data, I think a better analysis would be to assume that the gap is not true, and then show how statistically unlikely it would be for this amount of data to be collected.
Reversion towards the mean seems like it could explain the pattern in the chart. However, I think the point of the chart is to illustrate that the two population means are different in the first place. At the top of your analysis, you stated the assumption that Blacks are one standard deviation below Whites on a broad human capital measurement.
I think Steve Sailer is trying to show evidence of this gap to Good Liberals who would prefer that assumption to not be true. So while I enjoyed your analysis and it made me think twice about the data, I think a better analysis would be to assume that the gap is not true, and then show how statistically unlikely it would be for this amount of data to be collected.
The time series for crime (especially in America) is quite startling. Youth crime in America has almost vanished over the last 30 years. That really should be the focus of attention. How exactly could there no longer be any crime? The lead crime hypothesis is a compelling answer.
"Youth crime in America has almost vanished over the last 30 years."
Huh?
Deleading has caused profound changes in American society. These changes continue to go unnoticed by many.
"Continuing trend toward zero youth incarceration
Jan 18, 2023
Recent reports on USA prisoners and jail inmates in 2021 show youth incarceration is still heading toward zero. The prison incarceration rate for men ages 18-19 fell 88% from 2001-2021. The trendline for that decline hits zero in 2025."
https://ricknevin.com/update-continuing-trend-toward-zero-youth-incarceration/
I have searched this site and it appears that the lead crime hypothesis has not been accepted here. There is some quite compelling evidence.
This url (scroll to the bottom of the page for the two studies done that linked childhood BLL and 4th grade achievement) shows what happens to reading/math scores when BLLs increase from 1--10 mcg/dl. As can be seen there is a large difference.
https://portal.ct.gov/DPH/Environmental-Health/Lead-Poisoning-Prevention-and-Control/Surveillance-and-Screening
Article from "Environmental Research" entitled "Prenatal and postnatal lead exposures and intellectual development among 12-year old Japanese children" (2020) found a ~6 point IQ difference on WISC over the BLL range of 0.37 - 1.71 mcg/dl. All of the quartiles had very large statistical differences.
There is much much more evidence that is highly persuasive.
Emil, totally unrelated but do you have any comments on this recent study: https://academic.oup.com/esr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/esr/jcac076/7008955?login=false
I have but it was already done very well
https://open.substack.com/pub/cremieux/p/brief-data-post?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android
Blacks have about 5% frequency of MAOA 2R allele, which has strong association with crime in males, and it doesn't manifest in females.