A closer look at the French 2022 election vs. my model prediction
Worry not, the "new french" and "cultural enrichment" will meake France to reconsider the 1945 foundational myth.
Brother, Le Pen is far more right than any other candidate in Europe to carry an election since the 40ies. This makes her an totally implausible choice for the vast majority of the population, she will-never-win-an-election and let me tell you why: The reason is known as hot-cold empathy gap. In a cold rational state she might have the sympathies of the populus, but when they're standing their with the hand on the stove its not such an obvious choice anymore. NF is still largely regarded as a FU to the establishment more than a serious alternative, Zemmour even more so.
Another factor might be Le Pen's voters being more likely to stay at home on election day? You got any data on that? This was a major issue for Hillary Clinton.
btw, Brexit is one of the two big bets I didn't put even though they were obvious.
on vote day, you could get 80% bets that remain will win, which read absurd given the ~5050 polling
the other one was Newcastle not too get relegated after the January signings. again sorry easy money.
Le Pen read inherently different from Brexit.
Brexit was a straight forward binary vote.
Le Pen was about tactical voting, "hold your nose & vote Macron" voters. those are harder to predict
1. The Shy Tory Effect applies here, but it is Macron who is the "stand-in" for Tories. Possibly it can be more generalized to be the polls analogue to the King Effect. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_effect
2. The Polls will never reflect the true proportion of votes accurately, and that the variation between polling and votes would have some relation to the Penrose Square Root Law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penrose_square_root_law
3. Minorities (especially swing voters) are generally louder and has more "say", and loudness/publicity directly correlates to "voting power" https://noahcarl.substack.com/p/why-do-people-overestimate-the-size