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Feb 22, 2022Liked by Emil O. W. Kirkegaard

I am really surprised by that post. It seems that you have never heard that vaccines have amazing not specific benefits. Actually it is well known with big wikipedia article. ‏https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-specific_effect_of_vaccines

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The ultimate side-bet: The reason why wokesters promote vaccination, is that they are also more likely to be hypochondriacs/germophobes, and that deep down they know that a small piece of natural hormesis has been lost. https://www.secretorum.life/p/the-one-heresy-to-rule-them-all/comment/14221811

If Zizek's "decaf caffeine and 0% beer" thesis is correct, this is another form of sanitized desire, hormesis without encountering nature. Perhaps puritan thinking ("uncleanness" obsession), neuroticism (paranoia), anti-idolatry (verbal tilt), and conformist thinking (witch burning), and ineffective rituals (religious "cures") are all related.

The core thing that bug me is the gap between obsessive compulsion on one end, and avoiding good alternatives in the other. Another would be the uncertainty of immunity difference between people with moderate exposure to pathogens (e.g. rural farmers) versus metropolitan hypochondriacs.

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The 1502 vs. 817 (unvax vs vax) discrepancy in the ONS data is pretty easy to explain. Since vaccination is non-random, the unvax group is selecting for biases such as [people that wanted to get vaccinated but failed to do so because they died], which increases the observed mortality in this group. To mitigate this, one can look exclusively at later months of that year, when pretty much everyone either got vaxxed or refused, and were still alive in both groups. So, e.g. go to the original ONS post (linked by that midwit Noah Carl in his clueless-as-usual post on the Daily Septic), download all cause age adjusted mortality data (xlsx file for figure 2), and look at ASMRs for all-age group for the month of October. What do we find? We find ASMR for the unvax group for non-covid mortality for the month of October was 1075.9; and ASMR for the vax group was 892.9. So still about 10% difference, which is completely reasonable.

Looking at this by age groups, ASMRs for non-covid mortality for the unvax vs vax for the 18-39 age group, for the month of October, were 19 and 20.6 respectively. In the 70-79 age group where pretty much everyone got vaxxed except for a highly selected weird (possibly contra-indicated) tiny group, we see large discrepancy as expected: 2939.7 vs 2087.1. And again, in all-ages, 1075.9 vs 892.9, not egregiously discrepant.

And for sanity check, what do we see when we look at ASMRs (all-age) for covid mortality for the unvax vs vax for the month of October (xlsx for fig 1)? We see 285.4 (unvax) vs 62.4 (vax). This is largely free from weird selection effects that data that includes early months of vaccination drives suffers from, i.e. this is pretty close (up to small (~10%) real healthy vaccinee effects) to the actual vaccine effectiveness of the combination of vaccines used in the UK.

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Maybe we should re-start the smallpox vaccination program, just for the hormesis. You should become famous by being the first to connect the end of either the smallpox or the tuberculosis bcg vaccines with the obesity crisis.

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Seems you're missing the contraindication vaxx opt-out, which is from pre-existing conditions.

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